HBO success goes beyond 'Rome' (they just need to go back to making shows again)

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - If there is a history lesson offered by the new HBO series "Rome," which kicks off Sunday, perhaps it is this: Even the most invincible empire is subject to treachery.

Now HBO is learning the same principle: the cable powerhouse has found that the pedestal critics so heartily hoisted it on nearly a decade ago is on increasingly shaky ground.

Why? That unquantifiable but crucial metric known as "buzz" seems to be ebbing at HBO while surging at such competitors as ABC and FX. Whither HBO?, asked Entertainment Weekly and Wall Street Journal in recent months. New York Magazine says HBO is "losing its mojo." Newsday notes that "it's slipping in quality and zeitgeist status."

Et tu, media?

And so the presumption is the $100 million sword-and-sandals saga that is "Rome" must emerge as the next "Sopranos." Even the Christian Science Monitor has weighed in on the matter, deeming "'Rome' vital to HBO TV empire."

Chairman and CEO Chris Albrecht concedes that HBO is at a turning point -- just not the turning point his detractors envision. Rather than focus as so many have on HBO's ratings performance Sundays at 9 p.m., Albrecht is grappling with a paradigm shift that will transform a business much bigger than just a TV channel -- which makes "Rome" the least of his concerns.

"The biggest challenge for HBO is honestly not re-creating the success of 'Sopranos,' " Albrecht said. "It's continuing to grow at double-digit profit margins every year."

There is buzz, and then there is business. Even if Albrecht managed to somehow keep "Sopranos" on the air through 2020, HBO's bread-and-butter -- subscriptions -- is rapidly reaching the saturation point. That means HBO must make its brand relevant beyond TV to fit a host of new platforms -- broadband, wireless, even gaming -- to keep on course for the kind of growth that poured more than $1 billion in profits last year to parent company Time Warner's coffers.

"Any time you are in the content creation business, you have to leverage that content in as many ways as possible," said James Goss, an analyst who covers Time Warner for Barrington Research. "DVD is one valuable secondary growth channel for HBO. Maybe the Internet is next."

Consequently, pinning the very future of HBO on the premiere ratings of "Rome" might seem a little narrow. For one thing, the BBC co-production likely will be of less value to HBO domestically than it will in overseas markets, where the series' international subject matter might make it an even more attractive acquisition than something as distinctly American as "Sex and the City."

Asked to assess "Rome's" significance for HBO overall, Albrecht took the diplomatic route. "Certainly we have a lot of respect for 'Rome,' " he said. "But I see 'Rome' as the next show on the schedule.

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