Diesel could outpace hybrids in US

[Val]

Sales of low-emission diesel cars in the US could outpace their hybrid counterparts within five years, a new study claims.

If so, Germany’s three biggest carmakers – currently leaders in the technology – could profit, alongside Japan’s Honda and suppliers such as BorgWarner, Denso, and Continental.

The US is the world’s largest vehicle market, and purchasing patterns there will have a large influence on the economics of competing clean-vehicle technologies.

Ricardo, the automotive technology group that produced the study along with UBS Investment Research, estimates that sales of both diesel and hybrid vehicles will grow in the US as legislators tighten fuel-economy and emissions standards. However diesel passenger vehicles will “prevail by 2012”, the study claims, selling 1.5m units in the US, compared with 1.2m hybrids.

“We expect a big increase in diesel and hybrid sales, but ultimately we expect diesel to outstrip hybrids,” said Max Warburton, automotive sector analyst with UBS.

While about half of the vehicles currently sold in Europe have diesel engines, the technology is unpopular in America. Many diesel cars sold in the US during the 1970s energy crisis were of poor quality.

America’s standards on emissions of particulates and nitrous oxide emissions – which diesel cars have a harder time meeting than petrol or hybrid cars – are tougher than in the European Union.

Hybrid cars, powered by large batteries backed up by combustion engines, have sold better in the US than in Europe. The cars – of which Toyota is the leading producer – meet the strict US exhaust emissions. However, Volkswagen, BMW and DaimlerChrysler’s Mercedes brand are all planning launches in the US over the coming year of “clean diesel” cars that comply with emissions legislation in all 50 states.

The newest generation of diesel vehicles are comparable or, in some cases, even cleaner than Toyota’s hybrids. VW’s new Polo BlueMotion diesel model emits less carbon dioxide per km than Toyota’s top-selling Prius hybrid.

UBS and Ricardo claim that cost considerations will give diesel cars an edge over hybrids, whose batteries are expensive to produce. “The diesel cost penalty is substantially lower than that of hybrids, especially for larger vehicles,” the report claims.

Growing concern over global warming and dependence on foreign oil have prompted the US and Europe to tighten fuel economy and emissions standards over the past year.

The Bush administration recently began work on stricter fuel economy regulations, and 10 US states, led by California, have regulated CO2 emissions at the state level. The EU is proceeding with legislation that will require a 25 per cent cut in cars’ CO2 emissions by 2012. (FT)

[yanjonm]

And don't forget most diesel powered cars come with turbos!

[open32]

People tend not to like diesel cars. They have a bad rep. Also diesel is more expencive in America 9 months out of the year.

[Blackmask]

Petrol based engines have become more efficient, not surprising that diesel would do the same. Hybrids are still relatively new technology so they should continue to advance, especially with more players and competition.

Technically I doubt there's anything preventing hybrid technology with a diesel engine.